Extreme rainfall under climate change
The spatiotemporal signature of extreme rainfall under climate change: cross-scale propagation of effects on flash flood hazard
Client:
DFG (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft)
Duration:
10/2021 - 09/2024
Project description:
The project "The spatiotemporal signature of extreme rainfall under climate change: cross-scale propagation of effects on flash flood hazard" belongs to the NatRiskChange-Graduiertenkolleg.
Climate change scenarios suggest that heavy precipitation will occur more frequently and with higher intensity in the future. These heavy precipitation events may lead to flash floods, which can often cause major damage, as in the Ahr valley in 2021.
In order to be better prepared for such events in the future and thus prevent severe damage, we need a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying these events. How will the frequency and dynamics of heavy precipitation develop? When exactly do flash floods occur? Should we expect an increasing risk and damage potential of future flash floods? These topics are fundamental for adequate risk management in the future.
Within the framework of the project, we are interested in how heavy-precipitation-events can be identified and classified across different scales, and in the question which combinations of precipitation and area characteristics are significantly responsible for the development of flash floods. To do this, we use the latest radar data, develop new classification methods and use climate models. The study area is Germany.
