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Spatial modelling of GHG and Carbon dynamics

Based on the two main datasets and the improved scientific understanding of greenhouse gas dynamics created in Tier 1 and Tier 2, we will build on an existing land use model (LANDSHIFT) to develop a spatial model for current and future GHG dynamics and carbon sequestration. WP 9 includes the following four tasks:

  1. Adapting GHG emission factors: In a first step, existing GHG emission factors for agricultural management and land conversion to agriculture will be adapted to the region, utilizing the newly generated data from the data fusion approaches (Tier 1) as well as field measurements (Tier 2).
  2. Adapting the land-system model: In a second step, the spatially explicit landsystem model LANDSHIFT will be adapted to the study region, tested and validated (NigerBurkina Faso - Ghana). Spatial resolution will be a grid with a cell size of 500m x 500m. For the agricultural sector the model distinguishes the regionally most important crop production and rangeland systems, merging this information with fine-resolution remote sensing data on land-cover distribution.
  3. Scenario analysis: In a third step, the validated model will be applied to calculate land-use changes between the base year 2010 and for different scenarios until 2050 (with a step-stone in 2030). Here it considers both the expansion of agricultural land and settlement area on cost of (semi-) natural ecosystems and further intensification of agricultural management. Scenarios (including agricultural production, crop yield changes, population) will be based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and the West Africa scenarios developed by Palazzo et al. (2017).
  4. Calculation of GHG emission: In a final step, GHG emissions from agriculture and land-use change will be calculated, using the newly developed emission factors. Final result is a time series of raster maps depicting land-use change until 2050, as well as a spatially explicit inventory of land-related greenhouse gas emissions, respectively carbon stock changes in soils and vegetation.

Project members involved: 

Roman Hinz with Prof. Dr. Rüdiger Schaldach (UK)