Powerful Polls?

Public opinion polls have become increasingly pervasive elements in democracies. Especially during election campaigns, projections of citizens’ vote intentions attract far-reaching media attention. At the same time, the role of opinion polls is controversial. Consequently, discussions have often turned to how polling results undermine the working of representative democracy by negatively affecting democratic accountability and responsiveness.

The proposed project aims to study the influence of opinion polls on people’s voting behaviour. First, it will collect polling estimates for at least 25 OECD democracies and analyse patterns in polling trends in a comparative perspective. Particular attention will be paid to the context factors that make polling effects more or less likely. Second, the project will conduct two survey experiments in different West European countries to investigate the causal effect of polls on citizens’ vote intentions. The project will thus combine evidence from cross-national, observational data with survey experiments to maximise the internal and external validity of the research findings and allow for robust causal inferences. 

• Dr. Werner Krause (Principal Investigator)
• Rebeca G. Antuña (Post-Doc in project)
• Annika Dittrich (Student Assistant)
• Julia Stoppe (Student Assistant)

• German Research Foundation 
• 2023 to 2026
• Other funding approvals: Berlin University Alliance, Daimler and Benz Foundation

• Werner Krause & Christina Gahn (2024): Should We Include Margins of Error in Public Opinion Polls? European Journal of Political Research 63 (3), 1082-1107.
• Werner Krause & Christina Gahn (2025): Parties' Path to Parliament. The Influential Role of Public Opinion Polls. Working Paper.
• Werner Krause & Christina Gahn: How powerful are polls in influencing election outcomes? The Loop. ECPR's Political Science Blog. 
• Werner Krause & Christina Gahn: Die Macht der Sonntagsfrage. Sollten wir über ihre Regulierung nachdenken? Verfassungsblog.

• ARD –  Bericht aus Berlin [1]
• Der Standard [1]
• Deutschlandfunk [1, 2, 3]
• Deutschlandfunk Kultur [1, 2]
• Handelsblatt [1]
• Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung [1, 2]
• MDR [1, 2, 3, 4]
• Neues Deutschland [1]
• RTE [1]
• Süddeutsche Zeitung [1]
• Tagesspiegel [1]
• Tagesschau [1]

• Can Public Opinion Polls Legitimize Pariah Parties?
• Do Political Parties Adjust their Policy Programs in Response to Public Opinion Polls?
• Does Polling Herding Exist?
• Natural Disasters and Its Electoral Consequences. A Re-Evaluation Based on Polling Data