BIOPIC

In BIOPIC, we will develop an integrated modelling framework able to disentangle the complex roles of demography, dispersal and biotic interactions in shaping species niches, and assess their effects on population and community response to global change. The framework and its single components will be validated using a mix of simulated and empirical data, and it will be operationalized for avian communities as test case. In particular, the project will focus on five key research objectives aimed at (1) improving our understanding how life history and environment shape dispersal, (2) improving our understanding how life history and demography shape species’ niches, (3) improving our understanding how biotic interactions shape species’ niches, (4) developing and operationalizing multi-species dynamic distribution models, and (5) developing new biodiversity scenarios for European birds. Overall, the proposed project will improve the scientific basis for model-based biodiversity assessments and increase reliability of biodiversity predictions for broad spatial scales by providing both theoretical and conceptual advancements and by defining practical requirements and guidelines for the development and application of biodiversity models.

2023

Fandos G, Talluto M, Fiedler W, Robinson RA, Thorup K, Zurell D (2023). Standardised empirical dispersal kernels emphasise the pervasiveness of long-distance dispersal in European birds. Journal of Animal Ecology. 92: 158-170. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.13838

Howard C, Marjakangas EL, Morán-Ordóñez A, Milanesi P, Abuladze A, Aghababyan K, Ajder V, Arkumarev V, Balmer D, Bauer HG, Beale C, Bino T, Boyla K, Burfield I, Burke B, Caffrey B, Chodkiewicz T, Del Moral JC, Mazal V, Fernández N, Fornasari L, Gerlach B, Godinho C, Herrando S, Ieronymidou C, Johnston A, Jovicevic M, Kalyakin M, Keller V, Knaus P, Kotrošan D, Kuzmenko T, Leitão D, Lindström A, Maxhuni Q, Mihelič T, Mikuska T, Molina B, Nagy K, Noble D, Øien IJ, Paquet JY, Pladevall C, Portolou D, Radišić D, Rajkov S, Rajković D, Raudonikis L, Sattler T, Saveljić D, Shimmings P, Sjenicic J, Stastny K, Stoychev S, Strus I, Sudfeldt C, Sultanov E, Szép T, Teufelbauer N, Uzunova D, van Turnhout C, Velevski M, Vikstrøm T, Vintchevski A, Voltzit O, Voříšek P, Wilk T, Zurell D, Brotons L, Lehikoinen L, Willis S (2023). Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability. Nature Communications. 14: 4304. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1

Karger DN, Saladin B, Wüest-Karpati RO, Graham CH, Zurell D, Mo L, Zimmermann NE (2023). Interannual climate variability improves niche estimates for ectothermic but not endothermic species. Scientific Reports. 13:12538. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-39637-x

Malchow AK, Hartig F, Reeg J, Kéry M, Zurell D (2023). Demography-environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change. Philosophical Transactions B. 378: 20220194. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0194

Pang SEH, Slik FJW, Zurell D, Webb EL (2023). The clustering of spatially associated species unravels patterns in Bornean tree species distributions. Ecosphere. 14: e4589. doi: 10.1002/ecs2.4589

Pratzer M, Nill L, Kümmerle T, Zurell D, Fandos G (2023). Large carnivore range expansion in Iberia in relation to different scenarios of permeability of human-dominated landscapes. Diversity and Distributions. 29: 75-88. doi: 10.1111/ddi.13645

Southwell D, Skroblin A, Moseby K, Southgate R, Indigo N, Backhouse B, Bellchambers K, Brandle R, Brenton P, Copley P, Dziminski M, Galindez-Silva C, Lynch C, Newman P, Pedler R, Rogers D, Roshier D, Ryan-Colton E, Tuft K, Ward M, Zurell D, Legge S (2023). Designing a large-scale track-based monitoring program to detect changes in species distributions in arid Australia. Ecological Applications. 33: e2762. doi: 10.1002/eap.2762

Tekwa E, Gonzalez A, Zurell D, O’Connor M (2023). Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps, and solutions. Philosophical Transactions B. 378: 20220181. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0181

Zurell D, Fritz SA, Roennfeldt A, Steinbauer MJ (2023). Predicting extinctions with species distribution models. Cambridge Prisms: Extinction. 1: e8. doi:10.1017/ext.2023.5

2022

Peterson AT, Aiello-Lammens M, Amatulli G, Anderson R, Cobos M, Diniz-Filho JA, Escobar L, Feng X, Franklin J, Gadelha L, Georges D, Gueguen M, Gueta T, Ingenloff K, Jarvie S, Jimenez L, Karger D, Kass J, Kearney M, Loyola R, Machado-Stredel F, Martinez-Meyer E, Merow C, Mondelli ML, Mortara S, Muscarella R, Myers C, Naimi B, Noesgaard D, Ondo I, Osorio-Olvera L, Owens H, Pearson R, Pinilla-Buitrago G, Sanchez-Tapia A, Saupe E, Thuiller W, Varela S, Warren D, Wieczorek J, Yates K, Zhu G, Zuquim G, Zurell D (2022). ENM2020: A Free Online Course and Set of Resources on Modeling Species’ Niches and Distributions. Biodiversity Informatics. 17: 1-9. doi: 10.17161/bi.v17i.15016

De Oliveira-Silva AE, Piratelli AJ, Zurell D, da Silva FR (2022). Vegetation cover restrict habitat suitability predictions of endemic Brazilian Atlantic Forest birds. Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation. 20: 1-8.  doi: 10.1016/j.pecon.2021.09.002

Urban MC, Travis JMJ, Zurell D, Thompson PL, Synes NW, Scarpa A, Peres-Neto PR, Malchow AK, James PMA, Gravel D, De Meester L, Brown C, Bocedi G, Albert CH, Gonzalez A, Hendry AP (2022). Coding for Life: Designing a platform for projecting and protecting global biodiversity. BioScience. 72: 91-104. doi: 10.1093/biosci/biab099

Zurell D, Koenig C, Malchow AK, Kapitza S, Bocedi G, Travis JMJ, Fandos G (2022). Spatially explicit models for decision-making in animal conservation and restoration. Ecography. 2022: e05787. doi: 10.1111/ecog.05787

2021

Bleyhl B, Ghoddousi A, Askerov E, Bocedi G, Breitenmoser U, Manvelyan K, Palmer S, Soofi M, Weinberg P, Zazanashvili N, Shmunk V, Zurell D, Kümmerle T (2021). Reducing persecution is more effective for restoring large carnivores than restoring their prey. Ecological Applications. 31: e02338. doi: 10.1002/eap.2338

Bocedi G, Palmer SCF, Malchow AK, Zurell D, Watts K, Travis JMJ (2021). RangeShifter 2.0: An extended and enhanced platform for modelling spatial eco-evolutionary dynamics and species’ responses to environmental changes. Ecography. 44:1453-1462. doi: 10.1111/ecog.05687

Briscoe N, Zurell D, Elith J, König C, Fandos G, Malchow AK, Kery M, Schmid H, Guillera-Arroita G (2021). Can dynamic occupancy models improve predictions of species’ range dynamics? A test using Swiss birds. Global Change Biology. 27: 4269-4282. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15723

König C, Wüest R, Graham CH, Karger DN, Sattler T, Zimmermann NE, Zurell D (2021). Scale dependency of joint species distribution models challenges interpretation of biotic interactions. Journal of Biogeography. 48: 1141-1151. doi: 10.1111/jbi.14106

Malchow AK, Bocedi G, Palmer SCF, Travis JMJ, Zurell D (2021). RangeShiftR: an R package for individual-based simulation of spatial eco-evolutionary dynamics and species’ responses to environmental change. Ecography. 4: 1443-1452. doi: 10.1111/ecog.05689

Rotics S, Turjeman S, Kaatz M, Zurell D, Wikelski M, Sapir N, Fiedler W, Eggers U, Resheff YS, Jeltsch F, Nathan R (2021). Early-life behavior predicts first-year survival in a long-distance avian migrant. Proceedings of the Royal Society B. 288: 20202670. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2020.2670

Turjeman S, Eggers U, Rotics S, Fiedler W, Centeno-Cuadros A, Kaatz M, Zurell D, Jeltsch F, Wikelski M, Nathan R (2021). Estimating nest switching in free-ranging, wild birds: An assessment of the most common methodologies, illustrated in the white stork (Ciconia ciconia). Ibis. 163: 1110-1119. doi: 10.1111/ibi.12933

Wohlwend MR, Craven D, Weigelt P, Seebens H, Winter M, Kreft H, Zurell D, Cabral JS, Essl F, van Kleunen M, Pergl J, Pysek P, Knight TM (2021). Anthropogenic and environmental drivers shape diversity of naturalized plants across the Pacific. Diversity and Distributions. 27: 1120-1133. doi: 10.1111/ddi.13260

2020

Becciu P, Rotics S, Horvitz N, Kaatz M, Fiedler W, Zurell D, Flack A, Jeltsch F, Wikelski M, Nathan R, Sapir N (2020). Causes and consequences of facultative sea crossing in a soaring migrant. Functional Ecology. 34: 840-852. doi: 10.1111/1365-2435.13539

Beckman N, Aslan C, Rogers H, Kogan O, Bronstein J, Bullock J, Hartig F, HilleRisLambers J, Zhou Y, Zurell D, Brodie J, Bruna E, Cantrell S, Decker R, Effiom E, Fricke E, Gurski K, Hastings A, Johnson J, Loiselle B, Miriti M, Neubert M, Pejchar L, Poulsen J, Pufal G, Razafindratsima O, Sandor M, Shea K, Schreiber S, Schupp E, Snell R, Strickland C, Zambrano J (2020). Advancing an interdisciplinary framework to study seed dispersal ecology. AoB Plants. 12: plz048. doi:10.1093/aobpla/plz048 

Descombes P, Walthert L, Baltensweiler A, Meuli R, Karger D, Ginzler C, Zurell D, Zimmermann NE (2020). Spatial modelling of ecological indicator values improves predictions of plant distributions in complex landscapes. Ecography. 43: 1448-1463. doi: 10.1111/ecog.05117

Fandos G, Rotics S, Sapir N, Fiedler W, Kaatz M, Wikelski M, Nathan R, Zurell D (2020). Seasonal niche tracking of climate emerges at the population level in a migratory bird. Proceedings of the Royal Society B. 287: 20201799. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2020.1799

Romero-Muñoz A, Benítez-López A, Zurell D, Baumann M, Camino M, Decarre J, Giordano AJ, Gómez-Valencia B, Levers C, Noss AJ, Quiroga V, Thompson J, Torres R, Velilla M, Weiler A, Kümmerle T (2020). Increasing synergistic effects of habitat destruction and hunting on mammals over three decades in the Gran Chaco. Ecography. 43: 954-966. doi: 10.1111/ecog.05053

Wüest R, Zimmermann NE, Zurell D, Alexander J, Fritz SA, Hof C, Kreft H, Normand S, Cabral JS, Szekely E, Thuiller W, Wikelski M, Karger DN (2020). Macroecology in the age of big data - where to go from here? Journal of Biogeography. 47: 1-12. doi: 10.1111/jbi.13633

Zurell D, Franklin J, König C, Bouchet PJ, Serra-Diaz JM, Dormann CF, Elith J, Fandos Guzman G, Feng X, Guillera-Arroita G, Guisan A, Leitão PJ, Lahoz-Monfort JJ, Park DS, Peterson AT, Rapacciuolo G, Schmatz DR, Schröder B, Thuiller W, Yates KL, Zimmermann NE, Merow C (2020). A standard protocol for describing species distribution models. Ecography. 43: 1261-1277. doi: 10.1111/ecog.04960

Zurell D, Zimmermann NE, Gross H, Baltensweiler A, Sattler T, Wüest R (2020). Testing species assemblage predictions from stacked and joint species distribution models. Journal of Biogeography. 47: 101-113. doi: 10.1111/jbi.13608

2019

Aslan C, Beckman N, Rogers H, Bronstein J, Zurell D, Hartig F, Shea K, Pejchar L, Neubert M, Poulsen J, HilleRisLambers J, Miriti M, Loiselle B, Effiom E, Zambrano J, Schupp E, Pufal G, Johnson J, Bullock J, Brodie J, Bruna E, Cantrell S, Decker R, Fricke E, Gurski K, Hastings A, Kogan O, Powell J, Razafindratsima O, Sandor M, Schreiber S, Snell R, Strickland C, Zhou J (2019). Employing plant functional groups to advance seed dispersal ecology and conservation. AoB Plants. 11: plz006. doi: 10.1093/aobpla/plz006

Bouchet PJ, Peterson AT, Zurell D, Dormann CF, Schoeman D, Ross RE, Snelgrove P, Sequeira AMM, Whittingham MJ, Wang L, Rapacciuolo G, Oppel S, Mellin C, Lauria V, Krishnakumar PK, Jones AR, Heinänen S, Heikkinen RK, Gregr EJ, Fielding AH, Caley MJ, Barbosa AM, Bamford AJ, Parnell S, Wenger S, Yates KL (2019). Better model transfers require knowledge of mechanisms. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 34: 489-490. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2019.04.006

Gallien L, Thornhill AH, Zurell D, Miller JT, Richardson DM (2019). Global predictors of alien plant establishment success: combining niche and trait proxies. Proceedings of the Royal Society B. 286: 20182477. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2018.2477

Johnson J, Cantrell S, Cosner C, Hartig F, Hastings A, Rogers H, Schupp E, Shea K, Teller B, Yu X, Zurell D, Pufal G (2019). Rapid changes in seed dispersal traits may modify plant responses to global change. AoB Plants. 11: plz020. doi: 10.1093/aobpla/plz020.  

Peterson AT, Anderson RP, Beger M, Bolliger J, Brotons L, Burridge CP, Cobos ME, Cuervo‐Robayo AP, Di Minin E, Diez J, Elith J, Embling CB, Escobar LE, Essl F, Feeley KJ, Hawkes L, Jimenez‐Garcia D, Jimenez L, Green DM, Knop E, Kuehn I, Lahoz‐Monfort JJ, Lira‐Noriega A, Lobo JM, Loyola R, Mac Nally R, Machado‐Stredel F, Martínez‐Meyer E, McCarthy M, Merow C, Nori J, Nuñez‐Penichet C, Osorio-Olvera L, Pysek P, Rejmánek M, Ricciardi A, Robertson M, Rojas Soto O, Romero‐Alvarez D, Roura‐Pascual N, Santini L, Schoeman DS, Schroeder B, Soberon J, Strubbe D, Thuiller W, Traveset A, Treml EA, Vaclavik T, Varela S, Watson JEM, Wiersma Y, Wintle B, Yanez‐Arenas C, Zurell D (2019). Open access solutions for biodiversity journals: do not replace one problem with another. Diversity and Distributions. 25: 5-8. doi: 10.1111/ddi.12885

Rogers H, Beckman N, Hartig F, Johnson J, Pufal G, Shea K, Zurell D, Bullock J, Loiselle B, Pejchar L, Razafindratsima O, Sandor M, Schupp E, Strickland C, Zambrano J (2019). The total dispersal kernel: a review and future directions. AoB Plants. 11: plz042. doi: 10.1093/aobpla/plz042