TIER 2: Prevention of tipping points
The main objective of Tier 2 is to improve the empirical knowledge about the formation of cascading tipping points. Our research question is: “How do we recognise social-ecological tipping points of desertification and their facets?” – In Phase 1, DTPs were understood as ecological tipping points, and social processes were assumed to be drivers only. We now assume reciprocal feedback processes between ecological processes and human activities, which also lead to cascades in the formation of tipping points. This idea requires further and deeper investigations within the framework of this new dynamic and coupled system understanding. As indicated in the literature review and the findings of Phase 1 so far, such cascading processes should consequently be empirically assessed, analysed and their consequences estimated not only on the basis of ecological but also social factors. In particular, the perspective of the social sciences has hardly been explored in previous research on environmental tipping points. The WPs of Tier 2 therefore aim at a better empirical and analytical foundation of the understanding of cascading TP processes. These findings will be used to work with farmers and experts in to identify ways of avoiding cascading processes at an early stage.
Tier 2 (“Prevention of tipping points”) includes the following WPs:
WP 3: Understanding cascading tipping points in coupled SES
DTPs involve crossing sequential thresholds in ecosystem compartments. This WP aims to better understand these cascading processes in the ecological subsystem of the SES, and to explore their correlation with critical transitions in the social subsystem. Ecological studies will build on conceptual advances (WP1), translating three cascading tipping points identified along climatic aridity gradients to combined gradients of grazing and drought. We will continue to use the research platform ‘TipEx’ established in Phase 1 to explore how a DTP cascades through ecosystem compartments and at which stage this has negative effects on ecosystem services. Social studies will assess farmers’ knowledge of cascading dynamics and explore how these are linked to sustained changes in their livelihoods, their rangeland management practices, and cases where farming has been abandoned. Interdisciplinary data integration will generate knowledge on cascading processes in the ecological and social spheres.
WP 4: Exploring future social-ecological tipping points under climate change
This WP complements WP3 by exploring cascading social-ecological TPs, focusing on the influence of climate change. Social scientists will assess farmers’ views on the feasibility of livestock farming, based on current CC projections for the region, including the point when socialecological circumstances would make this activity unattainable for them. Ecological studies will examine the potential impacts of climate change on local rangeland ecosystems. The outcomes will i) supplement our efforts to identify social-ecological TPs of desertification centering on the effects of global warming and changes in precipitation patterns, and ii) contribute to elaborating options for improving rangeland management practices in the face of CC, also via modelling (see WP 7).