The Research Colloquium of the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences:
CURRENT RESEARCH ON “WICKED (POLICY) PROBLEMS”
“Predicting Paris: Forecasting the Outcomes of the UN Climate Negotiations in Paris 2015”
Expectations are rising in anticipation of a global climate treaty scheduled for finalization by December 2015 at Paris. In a joint project of CICERO – Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, New York University, PIK – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the University of Groningen, and the University of Strathclyde, we probe the potential outcomes on 10+ issues under negotiation, such as the principles for effort-sharing, the legal framework for adaptation, the amount of climate finance, inclusion of loss & damage. Professors Detlef F. Sprinz and Frans Stokman as well as colleagues from all participating institutions (via video) will present the results from an online expert elicitation and two policy forecast models, followed by questions and answers from the audience.
We look forward to welcome you.
Detlef F. Sprinz
Professor - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) & University of Potsdam
Presentation and research summaries:
Presentation
Kallbekken - Predicting Paris interim report from the expert survey
Thomson, Stokman - Forecasting Paris 2015 UNFCCC Negotiations
Sprinz, Bueno de Mesquita - Predicting Pargis: Forecasting the Outcomes of UNFCCC COP-21 With the Predictioneer's Game
Contact: Dipl. Pol. Katja Lass-Lennecke (coordinatoruwipcad-potsdampde)